The recent massacre has escalated diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan, leading to reciprocal actions such as visa cancellations and diplomat recalls. In retaliation, India suspended a significant water-sharing treaty with Pakistan and closed its border. Gunfire has erupted between the two militaries along the Line of Control in Kashmir.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who previously claimed a stabilization of security in Kashmir after years of insurgency, has now promised retribution. He is expected to hold a security committee meeting following consultations with military and security officials. According to Srinath Raghavan, a professor at Ashoka University, India’s government is under pressure to respond decisively to a terrorist attack, affecting their posture toward Pakistan.
Tensions have intensified since the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, a move that has historically influenced the level of violence between the two nuclear-armed nations. Former President Donald Trump remarked that India and Pakistan must find a resolution independently, acknowledging the longstanding conflict between them.
Strategic military decisions in India have typically been made by the elected government, but Raghavan notes that the military possesses the authority to choose their targets and methods of operation. This flexibility means that the military can act without strict limitations, although they will present their plans to Modi for approval. As the situation unfolds, the potential for escalation remains a significant concern for regional stability.
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